Syria/Libya

Assad still hanging in there, but I have to believe every dead protester spawns a cycle of retribution and need to avenge honor. I'm not sure this is his father's Syria where a high body count will cow everyone back to their homes. Syrians have seen the outcome in Libya and Egypt and may see it all through. A key issue is whether the merchant class ultimately decides whether this looks like civil war or a cleaning of the slate.

Libya outcome really depends on whether the air traffic controllers hit the ground in force.