Syria

I find it hard to understand how Assad believes he will hold through repression. The Alawites, a minority Shiite sect, seem to have little chance of holding on against the 80-90% Sunni majority. Keep an eye out for Iran. Assad is following the Iranian model which seemed to work last year against the Green movement. Demographics make this a dicier call. Republican Guard moving in to shore up Assad? Then what for Israel?

An Interesting Analysis of Yemen

Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

Why you don't necessarily follow the crowds to "democracy" in other parts of the world.

Blogs I Like

I've added links for Surviving in Argentina by Ferfal a great rundown of the prototype collapse, real world scenario on the ground observation.

Also, the Silent Tsunami which is a pretty good, if somewhat haphazard training log. In that sense it really does reflect the real world as well.

S&P Downgrade

Shoe dropping? Maybe.

However, I'm not sure that a debt ratings analyst has the depth of understanding of the posturing that proceeds policy making in Washington, DC. Jury is still out for me as I see mixed signals. Positives on consumer confidence and spending, in spite of high gas prices v. flat income levels and labor market drop outs.

I just don't know yet what the country looks like without the Medicare safety net, health outcomes now are already lousy and expensive as well. We shall see.

Debt Ceiling

Not sure yet how this will play out. Business interests have to weight in with the Republican party to get the votes together. Questions - how many tea party Republicans will get a pass as reasonable Democrats know they have to supply a few votes? Will Speaker Boehner survive passing it with Democratic votes in the House and how will Sen. McConnell deal with the filibuster and requirement that Republican Senators need to vote to get to 60?

White House is in best position, they've already said that the GOP agreed to raise debt ceiling. I wonder if this business as usual scenario still applies? If it doesn't then we are really in a new era. Beans and ammo.