Saturday, April 23, 2011

Syria

I find it hard to understand how Assad believes he will hold through repression. The Alawites, a minority Shiite sect, seem to have little chance of holding on against the 80-90% Sunni majority. Keep an eye out for Iran. Assad is following the Iranian model which seemed to work last year against the Green movement. Demographics make this a dicier call. Republican Guard moving in to shore up Assad? Then what for Israel?

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